The Pacific Group Releases its “COMDEX Alert” on Mobile Computing and Communications
CUPERTINO, Calif. — November 10, 1993 — The Pacific Group Wednesday released its "COMDEX Alert" featuring what's "hot" in mobile computing and communications at the annual COMDEX/Fall trade show being held Nov. 15-19 in Las Vegas.
Just as the desktop migrated quickly to the 486 processor a year ago, just about every x86-based notebook introduced today has a version of the 486 processor. All processors now have "SL" or equivalent technology from AMD, Cyrix, and T.I. that includes static operation, system management mode (SSM) and 3.3v operation. This provides users with suspend and hibernation modes of operation, essential for the effective operation of portable computers.
Another big item to look for here is color, especially those using double scan passive matrix STN display technology. The double scan process provides a sharp, clear display very near the quality of active matrix displays but at a fraction of the cost, usually less than $500 over the price of a system with a monochrome display.
Many vendors are positioning their double scan passive matrix color systems as monochrome replacements. The Pacific Group believes that as the differential price between monochrome and color drops under $500, users will switch quickly to color, making the monochrome display in notebooks and subnotebooks extinct within two years.
Major vendors for notebooks include AST (Bravo & Power Exec brands), Apple (PowerBook brand), Compaq (Contura and Lte brands), Gateway 2000 (ColorBook and Handbook brands), IBM (ThinkPad brand), NEC (Versa brand, also sold as the NCR 3180), T.I. (Travelmate brand), Toshiba (Satellite and "Txxxx" brands) and Zenith Data Systems & Packard-Bell.
Rotating magnetic storage capacities continue to advance, doubling almost every year. The 2.5" disk form factor (with varying heights from 12.5 mm to 19 mm) now provide 170-200MB standard and over 300MB as an option. We may see technology demos of 500MB 2.5" drives. Major vendors include: Seagate, Quantum, Maxtor and Conners. The 1.8" drives are also coming to market in PCMCIA Type III cards. Leading vendors include Integral Peripherals, Maxtor, MiniStor and Western Digital.
SunDisk recently introduced a 40MB solid-state mass storage card that uses 16Mbit density flash chip technology. The Pacific Group believes there is a solid notebook market for 5-10 MB cards that use the ATA (IDE) specification.
These cards can hold all the users data. This reduces disk I/O while running applications and, thus, power consumption. It also solves the latency problem notebook users suffer through time after time whereby the user has to wait 3-6 sec when saving a file while the hard disk spins up from its low power off state.
Subnotebooks are finally "in." It took almost three years, but now the "smaller notebook" without an internal floppy drive is accepted. The chief advantage: lower weight, often under four pounds and, in some cases, slightly under three. Leading vendors include HP with their OmniBook, IBM with their ThinkPad 500 and the Zeos Contenda.
It took two to three years for the LAN to catch on as an accepted paradigm for inter-connecting personal computers, it will be about 2-3 years before PDAs become accepted and in common use by most working professionals. Take a look at the Casio and Tandy "Zoomer" PDAs and spend some time with the Apple or Sharp Newton products.
Third party applications are now coming to market that will greatly help make these products succeed. The Pacific Group recommends looking beyond the handwriting recognition to see the benefits of using a truly personal computer. They will be much more attractive as the prices come down, features go up and pervasive wireless communications infrastructure gets in place.
Both SkyTel and Embarc by Motorola offer one way wireless networks over pager channels that provide broadcast services. These are up and running today and provide a useful tool to receive news, weather, sports and financial information as well as distribution information such as corporate database updates.
RAM and Ardis have wireless packet data networks up and running today with McCaw's CDPD system that uses the cellular network in the wings for introduction next year. CDPD is just now coming to market with Las Vegas being one of the first commercial operations. Both RAM and Ardis will also have booths. And in the wings, the parent to SkyTel, Mtel Technologies, is implementing a system called the Nationwide Wireless Network (NWN) for launch in 1995.
A video explaining NWN can be seen in the Motorola booth (Motorola is a supplier of much of the equipment to be used in NWN). The key here is the software that's used with the wireless networks and the applications to provide access to popular E-mail and information services.
Finally, in the wireless LAN arena, two good offerings are provided by NCR with their WaveLAN product and Proxim with their RangeLAN/2 product.
Some of the best software for portable computers has been developed by two Silicon Valley start-ups. One is aha! Software that has developed a unique way to manage electronic ink like it was text. Ink Development has a similar system in Notetaker. Both the Apple Newton and Geoworks Geos platforms have a cadre of developers working on many applications.
The Pacific Group believes that any portable computer announced at COMDEX should include a PCMCIA Type II or III connector. The standard is now in place, and all portable manufacturers should comply, even if some of the software drivers have to be modified. If a portable doesn't have PCMCIA, ask the manufacturer why.
The Pacific Group is a privately held company that focuses on mobile computing and communications services. The Pacific Group welcomes press inquiries. The company also participates in briefings of new mobile computing products and services.
The Pacific Group has temporary offices at 10382 Noel Ave., Cupertino, Calif. 95014. Tele 408/446-2311 and FAX 408/257-4659.
CONTACT:
The Pacific Group
408/446-2311, 408/257-4659 (fax)